Mortality in COPD: Comparison of Different Predictors in Patients Seeking a Pulmonary Rehabilitation Program
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17921/2447-8938.2019v21n4p390-6Resumo
Resumo
É clinicamente relevante identificar fatores preditores de mortalidade isolados ou multidimensionais em pacientes com Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica (DPOC). O objetivo desse esuto foi comparar diferentes fatores na identificação de pacientes classificados em alto risco de morte e identificar o valor prognóstico de fatores isolados frente ao índice BODE. Foram avaliados pacientes quanto a fatores associado a mortalidade: função pulmonar com a medida do volume expiratório forçado (VEF1); índice de massa corpórea (IMC); índice de massa magra corporal (IMMC); Incremental Shuttle Walk Test (ISWT) com a estimativa do consumo máximo de oxigênio (VO2máx); teste de caminhada de seis minutos (TC6min); escala Medical Research Council; índice BODE e tempo sedentário. Pontos de corte previamente associados com mortalidade foram utilizados para calcular a proporção de pacientes em alto risco. Análise de curva ROC foi utilizada para testar o valor prognóstico das variáveis isoladas frente ao BODE. Foram incluídos 162 pacientes (86 homens, idade 67±8 anos). As proporções de pacientes classificados em alto risco variaram de 12,6% até 76,5% de acordo com os oito fatores analisados (P<0,05 vs todos). A área sob a curva (AUC) desses fatores testados isoladamente frente ao índice BODE indicou insatisfatória capacidade discriminativa (0,26 < AUC < 0,44). Existe uma variabilidade expressiva na proporção dos pacientes classificados como “alto risco” de acordo com cada fator preditor de mortalidade. Além disso, a avaliação prognóstica do paciente obtida com o índice BODE não pode ser substituída pela avaliação de um único fator preditor.
Palavras-chave: Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica. Mortalidade. Exercício.
Abstract
It is clinically relevant to identify isolated factors or multidimensional predictors of mortality in patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). To compare different factors in the identification of patients classified as high risk of death and to identify the prognostic value of isolated factors against the BODE index. Patients were evaluated considering the factors associated with mortality: pulmonary function with forced expiratory volume (FEV1); body mass index (BMI); body mass index (LMWI); Incremental Shuttle Walk Test (ISWT) with estimation of maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max); six-minute walk test (6MWT); Medical Research Council scale; BODE index and sedentary time. Cut-off points previously associated with risk of death were used to calculate the proportion of patients at high risk of death. ROC curve analysis was used to test the prognostic value of each variable against the BODE index. A total of 162 patients (86 men, age 67 ± 8 years) were included. The proportions of patients classified as high risk ranged from 12.6 to 76.5% according to all eight factors analyzed (P <0.05 vs all). The area under the curve (AUC) of each factor analyzed against the BODE index indicated insufficient discriminative capacity (0.26 < AUC < 0.44). Conclusion: There is an expressive variability of patients classified as "high risk" according to each predictor factor. Moreover, the prognostic evaluation of the patient using the BODE index cannot be replaced by the assessment of a single predictive factor.
Keywords: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Mortality, Exercise.
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